I am having an interesting conversation with Alan Brown at DNA about the future of TV advertising. Since our future is closely linked to what 'TV' looks like 5, 10, 20 years from now I think it is helpful to think about what the actual content and delivery is going to look like. If for a moment we stop talking about TV and switch the discussion to 'content that we watch', whether in a theater, while we are riding the bus or at home on the couch, in the next 10 years who is going to be creating this content and how are we going to get it onto what ever screen we are watching? I see an evolution to a mix of providers and vehicles that breaks down into some categories that look like the following:
1. Advertising supported, highly targeted and specific content developed for very small audiences, relative to the size of typical network TV show audiences today. We have already seen a couple rounds of this happening; it started with cable TV with whole networks devoted to certain kinds of content; CNN, CNBC, History Channel Discovery etc and those networks have sliced themselves even thinner to serve up content to specific audience tastes 24/7, there are several flavors of the history channel or discovery running specific content based on what you want to see. But if you want to get a glimpse at what ad support content is going to look like in the future you have to turn your attention to the web. Youtube, G4, Twit TV, Revision3 are just a few places where you can watch (either live or not) weekly shows dedicated to any number of subjects. These shows all share a few key traits that give a glimpse of the changes a foot. They produce shows that are very highly targeted and serve small segments of larger categories. The shows are, by broadcast or cable TV standards extremely cheap to produce. The content is available in a number of different formats and via a number of media 'channels'. I can subscribe to the show and listen to them on my iphone during my commute in, watch them live in my browser or watch a downloaded version while I am riding on the bus on my tablet computer. Most of these shows are supported by a few advertisers who are very relevant to the small audience for these shows. And the content? Because it is produced for a very specific audience, largely by members of that audience most of the content is very good. At the moment it tends towards a more tech centric audience but that is changing and fast. What is game changing for the TV industry, I think, is that the big networks or even the medium sized networks aren't set up to create this kind of product. They are big, risk averse and like a battle ship don't turn on a dime. I am also betting that this kind of programming is very hard for the networks to do profitably due to their size etc. One last point, the ads tend to be read, or rather discussed by the host and the guest rather than a slick :30 spot. Why? Because the hosts add credibility to the message that a slick spot can not.
2. Subscription based programming. Much of the most critically acclaimed programming in the past few years has come to us via HBO and Showtime. The Sopranos, The Wire, Dexter, 6 Feet Under, Band of Brothers, John Adams, The Pacific, Weeds, Secret Diaries of a Call girl, all of it served up uncensored and commercial free. There was an article in one of the trades recently discussing how we will never see another Lost on ad supported TV because the networks can't afford to produce it and sell it ad time to support it. The subscription networks are stepping into that void big time and frankly doing it better, in many cases, than the TV networks every did, especially because they don't have to worry about network standards people watching over their shoulder. So let's take this idea further, what TV shows would you pay to subscribe to and watch when you wanted and commercial free? I recently started watching MadMen and 30 Rock but instead of watching on their respective channels I am downloading them from Apple TV. I am actually paying to watch 'free TV' and paying happily because I can watch several at a time, commercial free. This leads me to the third leg of my stool, what I call the 'straight to DVD model'.
3. One of the biggest impacts of DVDs on the movie industry is that many shows were produced for the DVD market that wouldn't have been produced if they had to live on their own merits at the theaters, and I am not talking about porn. Today's version of Straight to DVD is YouTube, AppleTV, Roku, Hulu and a bunch of other services where we download stuff to watch. In the two scenarios above technology is playing a large role in reducing the financial obstacles to creating quality content but I think the impact is largest here. The recent Levi spot shot by three guys on a DSLR and edited on a laptop in a van across america shows how technology is enabling us to make great content, with increasingly better production values. Just think what a few talented people with a RED camera, Maya, and a MacPro could create? There is a growing realm of fan films that are showing just how much is possible by amateurs. This is going to result in a lot more crap but it is also going to result in a lot more original stuff being produced because it doesn't have to get 'green lighted' by the system either in Hollywood or at the TV networks. And now, there is a growing host of places where you can make your latest opus available to the entire world for the cost of bandwidth. As the next generation of talented artists, directors, and visionaries starts to create the next Blair Witch or Good Will Hunting do you think they are going to go through the system or will they just shoot it and then distribute it via itunes? What would you do?
But what about the SuperBowl? What about those shows that seem to grab our collective attentions and draw us all together to chat about on Facebook? Those will still exist but will they exist on an ad supported network or will they look like one of the above scenarios? I am betting on the latter. Some, like the Superbowl may never change but they will be fewer and further between.
I am sure I haven't exhausted all the possibilities but those three categories cover a huge chunk of how I think content is going to be created and viewed and this leads me to the original point, if this is what the future of watching stuff on screens is going to look like, where does advertising fit in? Where do you shove your :30 spot?
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